Does the Commission Evaluation Provide a Robust Basis for the Next Stage of EU Tobacco Policy?
Publication date: 2026
Category: Better Regulation | Public Health | EU Policy Assessment
Overview
The European Commission’s Evaluation of the EU tobacco control framework marks an important step in the policy process leading towards the possible revision of the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and the Tobacco Advertising Directive (TAD).
The Evaluation provides a broad and detailed account of market developments, implementation challenges, the rise of novel tobacco and nicotine products, digital promotion, and divergent national approaches across the EU.
However, the quality of future policy choices depends not only on the breadth of information collected, but also on the robustness of the analytical foundations used to justify regulatory action.
This EPIC assessment examines whether the Commission Evaluation provides a sufficiently robust basis for the next stage of the policy cycle, particularly the forthcoming Impact Assessment.
Key Message
The Commission Evaluation is useful as a diagnostic document, but it does not yet provide a sufficiently robust analytical basis for major regulatory decisions without a comprehensive Impact Assessment.
The report argues that the next phase must preserve a clear distinction between retrospective evaluation and forward-looking policy design. The Impact Assessment should therefore play a substantive and independent role in testing policy options, assessing proportionality, and examining economic, social, regional and value-chain impacts.
What the Report Finds
The assessment identifies several areas where further analytical work is required before major regulatory choices are advanced:
| Assessment criterion | Assessment |
|---|---|
| 1. Problem Definition and Intervention Logic | Partially robust |
| 2. Evidence Base and Causal Attribution | Constrained |
| 3. Stakeholder Consultation and Evidence Integrity | Partially robust |
| 4. Economic Impacts and Value-Chain Considerations | Constrained |
| 5. Proportionality and Options Logic | Constrained |
| 6. Interface with the Impact Assessment Phase | Requires further substantiation |
Why This Matters
EU tobacco policy pursues major public health objectives, including reducing smoking-related harm and protecting minors. These objectives are legitimate and important.
At the same time, future regulation must be evidence-based, proportionate, enforceable, legally robust and attentive to economic, social and regional impacts.
This is especially important in the context of the Commission’s 2026 Better Regulation agenda, which places renewed emphasis on proportionality, implementation realism, simplification, enforceability and high-quality impact assessments.
